About project

The decision to publish Polish Economic Outlook. Trends, Analyses, Forecasts (PEO) was made after we had finished our macroeconomic model of the Polish economy (project entitled Macromodelling of the Polish Economy, accomplished in 1998; the description of the project can be found in the Report summing up the activities of the CASE Foundation in 1998 - available at the Warsaw CASE office).

Similar research was conducted by our experts in other reforming countries - the Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova and Georgia - where there was a need to create an independent source of forecasts of basic macroeconomic variables. In all those countries our models have become the source of high-quality forecasts which are being used by politicians responsible for economic reforms, international organisations, financial institutions and independent experts.

Thanks to this model economists collaborating with our Foundation have at their disposal a new and reliable instrument of making short- and medium-term forecasts of the basic macroeconomic variables like GDP, inflation, unemployment, balance of payments, and budget. As we have widened the scope of the model now we can publish every three months an elaborate assessment of the Polish economy. This assessment is independent of official analyses - it verifies forecasts published by various public institutions.

The major source of the data are the publications of the Central Statistical Office (GUS) and the National Bank of Poland (NBP).

The publication of the POE is supported financially by Bank PEKAO SA and Fortis Bank Polska SA.