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Events

CASE Policy Research Seminar - 23.03.2010
Teodoro Petkoff
Economic Problems of Venezuela under the Global Financial Crisis

CALL FOR PAPERS - 7th EUROFRAME Conference on Economic Policy Issues in the European Union:
After the crisis: Exit strategies for EU economies in a globalised world



Latest Publications

CASE Network E-Brief 03/2010: The price of delay: the future of Russian and Ukrainian pension systems

CASE Network E-Breif 02/2010:
Tax wedge, labor market and the shadow economy

CASE Networks Studies and Analyses No. 400:
Energy Security in the EU and Beyond   

CASE Network Studies and Analyses No. 399:
Agriculture Income Assessment for the Purpose of Social Assistance: the Case of Ukraine    

CASE Network E-briefs No. 01/2010:
The global recession and energy markets

CASE Network Report No. 90:
Social Security, Labour Market and Restructuring: Current Situation and Expected Outcomes of Reforms

CASE Network E-briefs 12/2009:
From fiscal stimulus to fiscal crisis

CASE Network Studies and Analyses No. 398:
Social Security Driven Tax Wedge and Its Effects On Employment and Shadow Employment

CASE Network Studies and Analyses No. 397:
Restructuring and Social Safety Nets in Russia and Ukraine - Socail Security Influence on Labor Mobility: Possible Opportunities and Challenges

CASE Network Report No. 89:
Economic Integration in the Euro-Mediterranean Region

CASE Network Studies and Analyses No. 396:
Energy security, poverty and vulnerability in Central Asia and the wider European neighborhood

CASE Network Studies and Analyses No. 395:
The East European financial crisis

CASE Network E-briefs No.11/2009:
No, the central banks didn't do it

CASE Network Reports
No. 88

Deep Integrations with the EU and its Likely Impact on Selected ENP countries and Russia

PEO 3/2009
Large Fiscal Deficit in Poland - curse #1

CASE Network Studies and Analyses No. 394
Differentiation of Innovation Behavior of Manufacturing Firms in the New Member States. Cluster Analysis on Firm-Level Data


e-Newsletter



Last update
2010-01-20


News

No, the central banks didn't do it (2009-11-30)

“Monetary policy was lax and eventually caused inflation, but not the financial crisis itself," states Charles Wyplosz in the 11/2009 CASE Network E-Brief.  In No, the Central banks didn’t do it, Wyplosz untangles the misconception that central bank policies may be fully to blame for the onset of the financial crisis.  He argues that although lax monetary policy may have contributed, particularly to rising inflation, it was distorted market perceptions and inaccurate calculations of risk which set the stage for the crisis. 

[full text E-brief]

No, the central banks didn’t do it
By Dr. Charles Wyplosz, Professor of International Economics at The Graduate Institute in Geneva

Lately, a popular view has emerged that the global financial crisis was caused by lax monetary policy in the U.S. (and elsewhere). Although, lax monetary policy can be  attributed to the bout of inflation that preceded the crisis, it cannot be blamed for the housing price bubble and the ensuing subprime debacle.

A popular narrative of the crisis goes as follows; central banks kept interest rates too low for too long. As a result, credit expanded sharply, which explicit or closet inflation-targeting central banks failed to notice. Easily available credit created and fed a housing price bubble as households sought to fulfill the American (British,  Spanish, Irish, etc.) dream of home ownership. Abundant liquidity also led investors to create and feed generalized asset price inflation. Worse, the prospect of durably low interest rates forced investors to hunt for higher yields and take on more risks, which they themselves did not even recognize. The conclusion of this story is
straightforward: central banks should never have kept interest rates so low, they should have looked at credit expansion and other monetary aggregates and realize that their policies were far too expansionary.

Shifting Narrative

This story is widely accepted as the correct narrative of the crisis, unfortunately, it only fits the facts superficially. A milder version of this view suggests that maybe monetary policy played a secondary, even supporting role, as an aggravating factor. An alternative view holds that lax monetary policy is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for the crisis. Monetary policy was lax and eventually caused inflation, but not the financial crisis itself. (...)

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