| e-Newsletter |
| Last update 2010-01-20 |
| Economic Assessment of the Euro Area: EUROFRAME 2008 Report Release The EUROFRAME Group, of which CASE is a member, launched today its latest report giving GDP and inflation projections for the EURO area for the years 2009-2011. The Group anticipates a GDP fall in the Euro area of 0.4% in 2009, with modest growth expected to return in 2010-2011. The report also considers the likely long-term consequences of the current financial crisis for the level of GDP. Automn 2008 Report Press Release PDF | ||||||
 Moldova: Reform, European Integration and Transnistrian conflict resolutionOn July 3rd CASE was proud to present a seminar led by Dr. Kalman Mizsei, the EU Special Representative to the Republic of Moldova. Dr. Mizsei spoke of several issues ranging from the integration of Moldova into the EU, a necessary deepening of the democratic process there, and on the hot topic of the unresolved conflict with the secessionist sect in Transnistria. The diplomatic view on the situation from the perspective of the European Union was a great honor for CASE to host. | ||||||
| CASE Hosts 2009 International Conference
The 6th CASE International Conference took place 20-21st of November 2009 at the Falenty Center in Warsaw. The Return of History: From Consensus to Crisis CASE International Conference hosted two days of high level debate. The event brought together more than 50 experts from all over the world to discuss the global financial and macroeconomic crisis. Conference presentations are available on the conference website (www.caseconference.eu). | ||||||
 Annual Report 2007We are pleased to inform that the Annual Report 2007 was just published. Among the most important institutional achievements of CASE in 2007 the report quotes: focusing on the European Union economic relations with its neighbouring countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, expanding CASE geographic scope to Middle East and Northern Africa, strenghtening CASE network activities and increasing its visibility in Brussels and in other decision-making bodies. | ||||||
 The falling dependency on Russian gas: CASE publishes 400th Network Study and Analysis“Precisely how the spot market for natural gas will develop is uncertain, but the pipeline issues and the Russian threat to EU energy security will become as anachronistic as 1970s fears of OPEC world domination,” says Richard Pomfret in Energy Security in the EU and Beyond (CASE Network Studies and Analyses No. 400). Reflecting past energy market trends, just as the emphasis on oil security has taken a back seat, he anticipates a decreasing threat of gas dependency on Russia as nations within the EU begin to embrace new Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) technologies. “Energy insecurity have been fleeting and the fears have been [and will again be] assuaged by market forces or technical change” | ||||||
 Reforming the Ukrainian State and Improving the Business ClimateIn spite of the impressive economic growth recorded in the first decade of the 2000s, Ukraine is not a business-friendly country. In this two page brief, Dr. Marek Dabrowski explains why and suggests specific institutional and political reforms needed to modernize the country. Click here to view: E-brief 2007/8 | ||||||
 Sound expenditure and long term growth: assessing public finances in the EU Mediterranean partner countries Drawn from a diverse array of countries, ranging from candidate-member Croatia to autocratic Syria, data point to clear connections between sound public finance expenditure and long-term growth in the EU’s Mediterranean Partner Countries. The findings are part of a report completed for the European Commission, DG ECFIN, by CASE Fellows, Luc De Wulf and Cyrus Sassanpour, along with Leonor Coutinho. The full report of the “Study on quality of public finances in support of growth in the Mediterranean partner countries of the EU” is now available online on the EC website. | ||||||
 Receive the latest E-briefs! You can now receive e-briefs in your inbox. Each month, CASE publishes concise articles providing insight into the most recent global economic issues. E-Brief 09/2009 The Baltic Conundrum explored the path of the Baltic States into their current crisis, reflected on the appropriateness of past decision and the options that lay ahead. “If international finance and macroeconomics are now to be redesigned, ‘the Baltic Conundrum’ should be kept in mind,” concluded the authors. “Here, we have a group of countries that suffered disproportionately from the effects of the global economic crisis, despite having done ‘most things right’.” In order to subscribe to CASE E-briefs please send an email to: | ||||||
 CASE contribution to ISMF project in SyriaIn December 2006, CASE was subcontracted by the Dutch management consultancy firm, ARCADIS BMB, to conduct a short-term consultancy for the Institutional and Sector Modernization Facility Project in Syria (see www.ismf-syr.org). Marek D±browski visited Damascus from December 16th to 18th, 2006, where he gave a presentation at the ISMF policy roundtable on “The Transition from a Centrally Planned to Market Economy: the Experience of Eastern Europe and FSU.” The presentation analyzed the similarities and differences between “Arab socialism” and Soviet-type socialism and their implications for a strategy of economic reforms. | ||||||
 Should the US Federal Reserve continue to cut interest rates?Monetary policy in the US is being aggressively eased with the aim of avoiding recession and giving troubled financial institutions more breathing space to recover. Is this the right decision? Can the US economy continue to develop without a recession for almost two decades? In E-brief 2007/10, Marek Dabrowski argues that the ongoing rate cuts in the US are risky for both the US and the global economy. For more, see: The Global Repercussions of Changes in US Monetary Policy | ||||||
 Changes at CASECASE would like to wish Joanna Binienda and Izabela Marcinkowska farewell and good luck! Joanna Binienda, who was with CASE for eight years in the PR division, has left to complete her Masters degree in Polish Studies at the University of Warsaw. Izabela worked as Research Program Officer at CASE and has now returned to the University of Torino in Italy to begin her PhD degree in economics. We hope to see them again soon at CASE. We also welcome Beata Matysiewicz, our newest Research Program Officer. | ||||||
 ENEPO Conference on Justice and Home Affairs in European Neighbourhood PolicyOn Friday, 30 November, the first conference within the ENEPO project, co-organized by CASE and CEPS (Centre for European Policy Studies), will be held at the CEPS headquarters in Brussels. The conference will focus on issues of migration. For more information about the conference, click here: The Wider Area of Freedom, Security and Justice At the conference, one of the latest papers written within the ENEPO project, which appeared this month in the 'CASE Network Studies and Analyses' series, will be presented by its author, Nicole Wichmann. In the paper, entitled "The Intersection between Justice and Home Affairs and the European Neighborhood Policy," Wichmann discusses the underlying logic and objectives attributed to cooperation in Justice and Home Affairs (JHA), which can be derived from the viewpoints voiced during the formation of the ENP. She argues that despite the existence of different logics, there is a unifying objective, which is to ‘extra-territorialise’ the management of ‘threats’ to neighbouring countries. The core of the paper presents the various policy measures that have been put in place to achieve external ‘threat management.’ After illustrating this using two case studies (one on the fight against terrorism and one on irregular migration), Wichmann recommends that the EU draft an Action-Oriented Paper on JHA cooperation with the ENP countries that indicates how the EU intends to balance the conflicting objectives and instruments that are currently present in the JHA provisions of the ENP. | ||||||
 2006 Annual Report Now Available OnlineThe first few pages of the 2006 Annual Report higlight CASE’s key acheivements in 2006, including: becoming a thought leader on EU relations with the Eastern Neighbourhood, developing into a trusted provider of expertise for the EC and national governments, becoming a key supporter of the Polish government in development assistance through their partnership with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), expanding and diversifying the CASE research team and office staff, increasing revenues and endowment funds, and strengthening network activities. The report also describes the 2006 research program, provides a summary of financial data, and gives information on the numerous events held and publications produced throughout the year. Click here to read the 2006 Annual Report. | ||||||
 Fixed exchange rate regimes contributed to the East European financial crisisIn The East European Financial Crisis, Aslund focuses on the global financial distress of 2008/9 in thirteen countries, the ten new EU members and the three countries of former Soviet Union. He claims that the East European countries with fixed exchange rates are the hardest-hit by the crisis. Aslund advocates easing ERM II conditions and facilitating euro adoption in the region to increase economic stability. Anders Aslund is the Chairman of CASE Advisory Board and a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. | ||||||
 Key competences in education in the EU-27The kick-off meeting for one of CASE’s newest projects, Cross-curricular key competences and teacher education is taking place on Thursday and Friday at CASE. The project is being led by CASE, with the participation of a number of international experts from other European institutions. The team will measure the extent that "key competences for lifelong learning", as defined by the European Parliament in Lisbon in December 2006, are being implemented in primary and secondary schools across the EU-27 countries. For more on the project, see the project page here: EU-27: Key Competences and Teacher Education | ||||||
 “Need to Speed up EMU Enlargement”This is the conclusion of Marek Dabrowski’s latest e-paper, “EMU Enlargement: A Progress Report,” in which he assesses the unfinished European integration process. The paper provides an overview of candidates’ situations in respect to EMU accession, revisits the pros and cons of adopting a common currency and explores the political economy and politics of EMU enlargement. | ||||||
 UNDESA conference on "Strengthening integration of the economies in transition into the world economy through economic diversification"During the UNDESA/UNECE Conference on "Strengthening integration of the economies in transition into the world economy through economic diversification" in Geneva, April 2-4, 2008 Marek D±browski made a presentation on "Addressing the policy challenge in economies which are not rich in natural resources: the case of low- income CIS economies". | ||||||
 Testing Models of Distributive Politics in Multiparty Systems: The Case of SpainElena Jarociñska, in her most recent studies, focused on an extension of an empirical literature on political economy of intergovernmental transfers to multiparty systems, which are typical for most European countries. | ||||||
 Globalization is the great economic and political force of our era. Behind it are: declining costs of communication and transport, the worldwide move towards a liberal market economy and the incorporation of billions of people into the world economy for the first time – argued Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times at the 2007 CASE Conference “Winds of Change: The Impact of Globalization on Europe and Asia”. | ||||||
 The Emerging Aversion to InequalityOn June 4th CASE proudly hosted a Research Policy Seminar, lead by Dr. Irena Grosfeld, PhD (Research Director at the Paris School of Economics and the National Centre for Scientific Research-CNRS). Dr. Grosfeld’s topic, The Emerging Aversion to Inequality- Evidence from Poland 1992-2005, evoked a great number of questions from those present for the seminar; the lively discussion is a testament to the excellent work Dr. Grosfeld, and her partner Dr. Claudia Senik, have done, and continue to do in their area of research. | ||||||
 Rostowski named Polish Minister of Finance Jacek Rostowski, one of the founders of CASE and a member of the CASE Supervisory Council, has been named Minister of Finance in the new Polish government. Rostowski is a well-known economist and the author of many academic publications on post-communist transition, European integration, macroeconomic policy and the role of institutions in economic development. He was formerly a professor of economics at the Central European University in Budapest. In the early 1990s, he advised the governments of Poland, Latvia and Russia on macroeconomic policy. Due to his government position, Rostowski has resigned from the CASE Supervisory Council. | ||||||
 Global Financial Instability: Sources and Systemic SolutionsWhat are the main sources of 2007/08 crisis of asset securitization? How to mitigate risks in stressful circumstances? Is Fed responding too slowly? Have the banks begun to trust each other again? These are the questions raised during the last CASE Policy Research seminar on 9th April. The lecture was held by Lucjan T. Or³owski, Professor and Chairman at the Department of Economics and Finance, Sacred Heart University, Fairfield, Connecticut, USA and a member of CASE Advisory Council. For more information on the seminar click here. | ||||||
 Challenges of GlobalizationWe are pleased to inform you that the book based on the CASE 2007 International Conference on Winds of Change: The Impact of Globalization on Europe and Asia held in Kyiv on March 23-24, 2007 was just published. The book entitled "Challenges of Globalization: Imbalances and Growth" and edited by Anders Aslund and Marek D±browski, addresses the growing macroeconomic imbalances and the challenges of globalization and long-term economic growth, with focus on Europe and Asia. Various aspects of macroeconomic imbalances are the theme of the first six chapters. The second part of the book discusses how the capitalist model of economic development, which has delivered all this growth, is developing or should evolve. The last two chapters consider options available to European policymakers to compete with and adjust to the rapidly growing East Asian Tigers and China. | ||||||
 Deteriorating energy infrastructure in the CIS stalls development in the regionFollowing the recently held CASE International Conference, CASE has published the research of Ben Slay from UNDP, a panelist from the third session of the conference, titled Enegry Security in Europe and Other Regions. In Energy security, Poverty and Vulnerability in Central Asia and the Wider European Neighborhood, Slay argues that two decades of under-investment in Soviet-era energy, water, and communal service infrastructures threaten significant reductions in access to these services in the poorer countries of this region, particularly Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Ben Slay is the Senior Economist at UNDP’s Regional Bureau for Europe and CIS, Bratislava | ||||||
 Euro Area: Current Account ImbalancesA real appreciation of the euro against the currencies of its main trading partners appears to have a substantial effect on the Euro area’s net exports in the long run, though the immediate effect is small – argue Alan Ahearne, Brigit Schmitz and Juergen von Hagen in the Studies and Analyses paper no. 345 entitled: Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area. The authors find that the adjustment to a real appreciation of the euro would not be equally distributed across Euro area countries. In particular, Germany would bear the largest share of the adjustment, while the other Euro area economies would be relatively unaffected. | ||||||
| Free Trade Agreement with the EU: What Implications for Armenia and Georgia Prepared in the framework of the study on The Economic Feasibility, General Economic Impact and Implications of Free Trade Agreements between the European Union and Armenia and Georgia According to the European Union Neighbourhood Policy Action Plans, CASE and Global Insight are looking in two separate reports at the economic implications of different degrees of integration between the EU and Armenia and the EU and Georgia. Armenia Report; Georgia Report | ||||||
 Azerbaijan: Advisory Service on Macroeconomic Management and Institutional ReformsAfter seventeen years of independence, Azerbaijan is enjoying a major oil boom due to last for the next 15 years. However, the country must now learn how to effectively manage its oil revenues so as to insure growth in the non-oil sectors, sustainable poverty reduction and governance strengthening. CASE's two-year Advisory Service Technical Project in Azerbaijan will aim at improving the quality of economic policy-making process and the institutional and human resources capacity of the Azerbaijani Ministry of Economic Development, guiding the latter towards increased autonomy in providing adequate response to economic challenges. | ||||||
 Positive surprises for Polish economy?On 27 May the new issue of the Polish Economic Outlook was presented at the CASE headquarter. The first quarter was marked by a number of surprises, mostly positive, suggesting that the strength of the economy and its resilience to withstand the global slowdown is better than we expected. One of the reasons is that Polish banks are little exposed to US credit markets. | ||||||
 Enhancing Financial Sector Monitoring in EU Candidate and Potential Candidate Countries CASE has been selected to carry out a 7 month study on “The effects of the global crisis on the financial sector in candidate and potential candidate countries” for DG ECFIN. The study will increase the understanding of how the international economic and financial crisis affects the financial sectors of the EU candidate and potential candidate countries by providing a relatively simple, non-technical and user-friendly toolkit for enhanced monitoring. | ||||||
 The crisis of “the deep Keynesian project”Jacek Rostowski, the Minister of Finance of Poland and one of the founders of CASE, delivered a key note speech in The Return of History: From Consensus to Crisis CASE International Conference that raised a remarkable interest from all participants. Turning down the view that the recent financial crisis is a crisis of capitalism, Rostowski argues that what happened is a crisis of “the deep Keynesian project,” implying that the aim of economic policy is minimizing economic fluctuations on the down. This policy succeeded for almost 20 years and it led to this massive crisis, because, to quote the Minister: “what drives the market is the balance between fear and greed. If you successfully remove the fear you have no right to complain when a greed takes off". In this context, Rostowki advocates that smaller crises should be allowed to happen to discipline the marketplace and to avoid a bigger crisis in 10-15 years. | ||||||
 Analyzing the Euro‐Mediterranean Road map until 2010 and beyond In September, CASE and CEPS experts submitted the final report “Economic Integration in the Euro‐Mediterranean Region” to DG TRADE, concluding the year long EUROMED project. The report recommends that in order to significantly move forward the EuroMed Free Trade Agreement and advance the integration process, the region must work to reinforce the network of free trade agreements, promote a Euro‐Med trade and investment facilitation mechanism, and enhance efforts to deepen existing integration. The report is now available on the European Commission website. | ||||||
 EU Migration Policy creates instability rather than solidarity in the regionIn the recent CASE Report, State of the Art: The Nexus between European Neighborhood Policy and Justice and Home Affairs, authors Elspeth Guild, Viktoriya Khasson and Miriam Mir of CEPS examine the migration policies developed within the European Neighborhood Policy. They conclude that the ENP migration policy simply repackages much of what has already been agreed upon with third countries. "As regards irregular migration, the emphasis is on placing obligations on the neighbours to act as the buffer between the EU and other third countries...Instead of reinforcing solidarity in the region, such an approach is likely to create tension and instability." | ||||||
 Aslund: Russia’s Situation is Untenable In his latest book, Russia's Capitalist Revolution: Why Market Reform Succeeded and Democracy Failed, Anders Aslund describes Russia’s successful transition to a market economy, and its failure to transform into a democracy. Aslund concludes that this situation is not likely to hold as Russia is too wealthy, educated, pluralist, and open to be so authoritarian. He argues that either the market economy or the authoritarian rule will have to give. His view of Putin is critical; he observes that Putin has created a system that leaves him little choice but to stay on as president. The book provides a broad overview of Russia's economic and political history from Gorbachev’s entry in 1985 until the present. The author uses a revolutionary paradigm to make sense of Russia’s recent past. Anders Aslund is the Chairman of the CASE Advisory council and a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington DC. For more on the book, see the Peterson Institute bookstore. | ||||||
 Challenges to China's GrowthIn the latest paper in the CASE Network Studies and Analyses series, Dr. Wing Thye Woo asks, "What could derail China's high growth?" He draws an analogy between China and a speeding car and predicts that a crash could occur due to: (1) the breakdown of an economic mechanism (2) a flaw in governance that creates social disorders or (3) the loss of economic viability e.g. an environmental collapse or an export collapse. The fact that China has recently declared that its most important task is to build a Harmonious Society (described as a democratic society under the rule of law and living in harmony with nature) suggests that improvements in governance and protection of the environment are among the most serious challenges to achieving sustainable development. Wing Thye Woo is a senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, Professor of Economics at the University of California at Davis, and member of the CASE Advisory council. The paper was presented within the BRE-CASE seminar series on Oct. 11th. Read the abstract and full paper HERE. Video clips of the presentation will be available online by next week. | ||||||
| The Risk Management Approach of the Federal Reserve System - a Model for the European Central Bank? While it first appeared that Europe would not imitate the US in fighting the effects of the financial crisis, a growing number of European governments have now set side money to rescue distressed banks and guarantee private deposit accounts. Is the US a model to copy? The question was at the core of CASE policy research seminar on 20 October when Magdalena Malinowska addressed The Risk Management Approach of the Federal Reserve System - a Model for the European Central Bank? | ||||||
| Presentation of “EU-Ukraine” report at Polish Senate The authors of the CASE and CASE Ukraine Report “Prospects for EU-Ukraine Relations” presented its major findings at a joint-session of the Committee on EU Affairs and the Foreign Relations Committee of the Polish Senate.
Earlier this month the team presented at a mini-hearing of the European Parliament’s Committee on International Trade in Brussels as well as a session of the Baltic Intergroup of the European Parliament in Strasbourg. The report has also been presented to academic audiences in Berlin (hosted by DIW Berlin - German Institute for Economic Research) and Kyiv (hosted by CASE Ukraine). | ||||||
 Newly established CASE Belarus joins CASE networkWe are pleased to welcome our newest daughter organization, CASE Belarus, into the CASE network. Representatives of CASE, CASE Ukraine and IPM Research Center finalized the registration of the new center in June. The executive director is Sier¾ Naūrodski and Deputy Director is Alexander Chubrik. CASE Belarus research activities will focus on transition challenges facing the Belarusian economy. We look forward to future cooperation. Related news: Click here to read the latest e-brief: The Potential of Small and Medium Entreprises in Belarus by Sier¾ Naūrodski | ||||||
 CASE Contributes to OECD Book: Evidence in EducationThroughout 2006, Jerzy Wisniewski has been organizing a series of meetings at CASE at which former education ministers of Poland discuss the communication gap between evidence-based research and current education policy in Poland, with the aim of designing a permanent mechanism that could help bridge this gap. One of the first outcomes of this series of meetings has been a contributing chapter on Poland in the new OECD book, Evidence in Education: Linking Research and Policy. The book focuses on the “challenge of effective brokering between education policy makers and researchers” in all OECD countries. Please see the OECD online bookshop for a short summary, table of contents and purchasing information. Click here to download the chapter on Poland. | ||||||
 Recent seminar with Dr. Richard Pomfret"The agricultural sector in Kazakhstan experienced declining output throughout the 1990s, partly because relative prices shifted from being distorted in favour of farmers to being distorted against them. Only after the end of the decade did public policy shift towards support for agriculture. This support was boosted by a billion-dollar Agriculture and Food Program for 2003-5 which was made possible by booming oil revenues,” says Dr. Richard Pomfret, a Professor of Economics at the University of Adelaide, Australia and a Visiting Professor at Johns Hopkins University’s Bologna Center in Italy in his recent paper: ‘Using Energy Resources to Diversify the Economy: Agricultural Price Distortions in Kazakhstan’. Dr. Pomfret presented the paper at the CASE Policy Research Seminar on 4 December. He estimated producer support equivalents for the main agricultural products in Kazakhstan since 1990, and analyzed the consequences of shifts in farm support policy. Picture: Richard Pomfret (by Robin Mills, News from the University of Adelaide) | ||||||
 Ukraine at a CrossroadsSixteen years after obtaining independence and three years after the Orange Revolution, Ukraine has reached a crossroads. It has broken with the Soviet and totalitarian past but its democracy is still young and fragile, and therefore vulnerable to various political shocks. Basic civil and economic freedoms are not well protected due to numerous legal and institutional imperfections. Although Ukraine has succeeded in building the basic institutional foundations of a market economy, its capitalism is heavily distorted and its economic transition is far from complete. | ||||||
| Implementing a New EU Security Approach in the Neighbourhood The result of a joint effort by CASE and the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), the report entitled EC Visa Facilitation and Readmission Agreements: Implementing a New EU Security Approach in the Neighbourhood offers an insight in the objectives and political implications of visa facilitation and readmission agreements. Full report The report is part of a larger undertaking on EU Eastern Neighbourhood - Economic Potential and Future Development (ENEPO), a Specific Targeted Research Project coordinated by CASE and funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union. Find out more about ENEPO | ||||||
Is the role of micro-enterprises, i.e. those that employ 0-9 people, in Poland greater or smaller than their role in other nations of the European Union? How are Polish enterprises different from “EU” enterprises? Ewa Balcerowicz seeks to answer these questions in her recently published article, “Micro-enterprises in Poland in the broader context of the European Union,” in the latest edition of the Report on the Condition of the Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Sector in Poland in 2007- 2008. | ||||||
 Creating the Emerging Market FundSimon Johnson, member of the CASE Advisory Council, suggests that emerging markets should create their own alternative to the International Monetary Fund. The rise of an “Emerging Market Fund,” whose membership would exclude the U.S. and Western Europe, may be the “best way forward,” states Johnson. In CASE E-brief 10/2009, Replacing the International Monetary Fund, he explains that the new institution would overcome several of the IMF debilitating flaws by granting greater power to weaker states to control their own safety net institution. [download full text E-brief 10/2009] | ||||||
 Can the promise of EU membership be a regional public good?In the newest issue of CASE Studies and Analyses, experts Marek D±browski and Artur Radziwi³³ find that the prospects of EU accession and trade liberalization are correlated with the faster pace of economic and institutional reforms in Central Europe, the Balkans and the Baltic states. The study shows that the accession conditionalities established by the EU are more effective in motivating reforms than conditionalities put forth by other international organizations. | ||||||
 Erawatch Country Report 2008The reports are produced for each EU Member State to support the mutual learning process and the monitoring of Member States' efforts by DG Research in the context of the Lisbon Strategy and the European Research Area. | ||||||
 How Feasible Is a EU-Georgia and a EU-Armenia Free Trade Agreement?The two e-briefs look at how far integration with the EU has proceeded and what are the remaining problems. A free trade agreement that would involve deep integration in the form of a comprehensive set of reforms along with flanking measures e.g. on competition and corruption is found to accrue the benefits for both Georgia and Armenia. In both cases, however, serious questions remain as to their willingness and institutional capacity to undertake further commitments. A joint reading of these two separate experiments reveals that reaping the benefits of deep integration will be a more laborious task for Armenia as the country needs to make additional efforts in undertaking reforms and fighting corruption. | ||||||
| The Euro Did Not Raise Prices in The EMU Contrary to the general belief that the introduction of the euro raised the general price level in the EMU, Dr. Przemyslaw Wozniak argued on Wednesday 19 November during a CASE Policy Research Seminar that the euro had a price-dampening effect, especially on consumer goods. READ Presentation. | ||||||
 The Crisis and EU's Weakness"The crisis demonstrated the limited capacity of EU institutions to conduct Union-wide anti-crisis policies," CASE president Marek D±browski explained in an interview with EurActiv. He predicts a "near-stagnation scenario" for many EU economies. While Marek assessed that the De Larosiere report is a step in the right direction, he questions whether the degree and speed of building the EU regulatory framework will be sufficient to meet the existing challenges. The interview from November 19, 2009 is available on the EurActiv website in English and in Czech. | ||||||
 IMF Reform Debate in Central AsiaTo date, the debate about International Monetary Fund (IMF) Reform has been shaped largely by conversations within and among OECD countries. The project "New Rules for Global Finance Coalition" proposes to remedy this imbalance by encouraging a series of regional conferences that would enable developing countries to articulate their needs and priorities for future services from the IMF. One of such meetings will be jointly organized by CASE-Kyrgyzstan and Centre for International Governance and Innovation and will take place on 20-21 May in Bishkek. It will bring together senior officials and scholars from a number of countries of the region, along with a few other invitees, to analyze and discuss Central Asian perspectives on global monetary cooperation. | ||||||
 Positive Growth in Euro Area in 2007Despite uncertainty about the evolution of the situation in financial markets, the authors of the EUROFRAME EFN Autumn report forecast economic expansion in the Euro Area to remain strong in the second half of 2007, bringing growth for the whole year to 2.7%. The authors predict growth to slow moderately in 2008 and 2009 to around 2.25 %, a level of growth which is close to the growth of potential output. The report is available here: Autumn 2007 Special Issue: European Social Models and Social Europe EFN is a 3 year project aimed at producing biannual macro-economic forecasts for the euro area, Europe, and other regions, together with an analysis of topical policy issues for the European Commission. The forecast and the analysis are prepared by a consortium of 10 independent European institutes: see www.euroframe.org/efn. | ||||||
 Poland's Economy after the Elections: Is Inflation a threat?"The Polish economy lost some of its momentum in the third quarter of 2007. Though inflationary pressures were modest in the third quarter, there are signs that demand factors will soon surface and add tensions to the flucutations in the CPI rate, " warn members of the CASE Macroeconomic forecasting team. The latest Polish Economic Outlook (3/2007) was released at a press conference at CASE on 13 November. In this edition of the quarterly, the authors devote a special section to the economic consequences of the early parliamentary elections. For the full report, click here: Polish Economic Outlook 3/2007. | ||||||
| Integration: Stabilizing the Balkans Ma³gorzata Jakubiak, CASE Vice-President, presenting a recent report on Trade and Economic Relations between the EU and the Western Balkans during the session of the European Parliament's Committee on International Trade on 9 September in Brussels. Full report | ||||||
 An Aging Europe: Where are productivity costs most acute? “Due to serious differences in labor market structures between the New Member States (NMS) (including current candidates) and the EU15, the former will be the first to experience higher-than-average productivity costs of ageing in the near future.” This hypothesis is examined by Mateusz Walewski in the latest paper in the CASE Network Studies and Analyses series, “Analysis of cross-country differences in the shape of the age-wage relationship with an attempt to tackle age-productivity differences within the EU.” Walewski notes that the relationship between age and productivity is becoming increasingly important as the European population ages and the retirement age increases. Thus as the average age of workers goes up, the average level of productivity growth will go down, resulting in the decreasing competitiveness of European economies. How does the relative productivity of older workers in the NMS compare to productivity in the EU15? Click here to see all the latest CASE publications. | ||||||
 CASE support for Institutional Strengthening in EgyptAs of December, CASE has been participating in a project in Egypt, entitled, "Support for the Institutional Strengthening of the Cabinet Information and Decision Support Centre," under the EU-funded Lot 10 Framework. The purpose of the project is to provide technical assistance to the Center in developing its policy research, analytical and policy advice potential, with the aim of strengthening the government's capacity to design economic policies and economic reforms. | ||||||
 Rising Food PricesOn July 7th at 16.00 CASE hosted a seminar on the topic of the Global Food Crisis. The guest lecturer was Dr. Luca Barbone, the director of Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) for the Europe and Central Asia Region of the World Bank. | ||||||
 CASE Policy Research Seminar hosts Mark Allen, October 12, 2009At the most recent CASE Policy Research Seminar, Oct. 12, 2009, Allen assessed the outcomes of the negotiations from the Pittsburgh Communiqué and extracted lessons for future global financial governance. Outcomes achieved at the Pittsburg Communiqué have been “a step toward greater global governance, but not a leap,” Allen stated. He named the limited direct criticism at international fora as the main hindrance to major breakthroughs, and in the future expects the IMF to have an increasingly large role as the mediator and instigator of the previously avoided global discussions. Mark Allen is the Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe. "Reason and Rules in International Economic Policy Making" [download presentation] | ||||||
 CASE Completes Project on Key Competencies in European EducationKey competencies, those that “all individuals need for personal fulfillment and development, active citizenship, social inclusion and employment” should be included in the school curricula for pupils, as well as on-going education of teachers, who are responsible for passing on the competences to their students. In September, a team of researchers led by Jerzy Wi¶niewski presented the results and recommendations from their comparative study on the development and implementation of the key competencies in the education systems of the 27 member states of the European Union. Executive Summary of the Report [download file] Full text report (CASE Network Report No. 87) [download file] | ||||||
 What can Poland learn from Portugal?A memo from The Portuguese experience from 1995 to 1999 shows clearly that Polish fiscal policy should be changed and that postponement of public finance reform is irresponsible. Discussants and guests of the 94th BRE-CASE seminar talked about pending public finance reform on 7 February. Poland, like Portugal in the 1990s, is in a strong economic growth period. Maciej Krzak, head of the CASE macroeconomic team, has argued that the similarities between the economic booms in both countries are striking: strong expansion of domestic credit (especially housing credits), strong wage increases, a growing current account deficit and a growing budget deficit. | ||||||
 Holiday Greetings  | ||||||
 Study on Price Convergence appears in DG ECFIN Economic PapersPrzemys³aw Wozniak, a member of the CASE Supervisory Council, together with a team of economists from DIW Berlin, are the authors of a study on the effects of the EU-10 enlargement on price convergence in the enlarged internal market. The paper was published in the “Economic Papers” series produced by the Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN). The results of the analysis of comparative price levels in the EU-25 confirmed the presence of price convergence. Moreover, it found that both the catching up effect of the EU-10 and increased competitiveness pressure on prices have been important factors for explaining price convergence. In addition, both effects seem to be more pronounced for the EU-10 than for the EU-15. | ||||||
 Global Economic Crisis in Belarus: A Look BackIn CASE E-brief 8/2009 Alexander Chubrik discusses the role of the global financial crisis in Belarus. While in the first half of 2009 Belarus’ economic preformance surprised most outside observers, Alexander Chubrik depicts the serious impact the global economic has had on Belarus „primarily though declining demand of Belorussian exports”. Among the first transition economies to ask for an IMF loan, Belarus has reacted to the effects of the crisis by borrowing externally. Instead, Chubrik suggests that the proper response is a combination of structural reforms as well as tight monetary and fiscal policy measures. Alexander Chubrik is the Vice President of CASE-Belarus and an economist at the IPM-CASE Research Center in Minsk.
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| How to improve the investment climate in the CIS? “Get policy-makers to support stronger macroeconomic fundamentals, to promote greater integration with regional and global trading blocs, and to reform domestic, financial, regulatory, and political institutions” answers Alina Kudina in CASE’s just released Network E-brief (No.02/2009). | ||||||
 How Ukraine became a Market Economy and Democracyby Anders Aslund provides an insightful analysis of the country’s transformation since its independence in 1991. Three periods of reforms particularly contributed to making this transformation a success. Economically, Kuchma’s 1994-96 financial stabilization and mass privatization and Yushkenko’s 2000 cracking on the rent-seeking society allowed for economic growth to return. Politically, the 2004 Orange Revolution provided the necessary impetus for democracy to break through in the country. http://bookstore.petersoninstitute.org/book-store/4273.html Anders Aslund, currently a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, is also Chairman of CASE’s Advisory Council. | ||||||
| Is Georgia Ready for a Free Trade Agreement with the EU? Hinting at an answer, CASE Vice-President, Malgorzata Jakubiak, presented the major findings of the study on The Economic Feasibility, General Economic Impact and Implications of Free Trade Agreement between the European Union and Georgia According to the European Union Neighbourhood Policy Action Plan during an Eurasia Partnership Foundation Forum held in Tbilisi on 1st October. For more information about the project and CASE's activities in Georgia, please click here. | ||||||
 The global recession and energy marketsGiven the trajectory of the technological and economic policies of advanced economies, Leonid Grigoriev, President of the Institute for Energy and Finance in Russian Federation, predicts a decrease of oil intensity of the world economy in The global recession and energy markets (CASE Network E-brief 01/2010). He explains, that this change will require time and investment, while the latter is at a shortage due to the global recession. Grigoriev expects the energy market to balance at the current price in 2010-2011, and continue to remain balanced at this level until demand grows. Underpinning Grigoriev’s view is the expectation that the low investment outlook will result in a possible shortage of oil supply. In combination with rising demand, the foreseen supply shortage will drive oil prices up in the long-term prospective. | ||||||
 Results of the World Governance Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic have been publishedWorld Governance Assessment (WGA) is a newly developed tool of measuring governance quality based on a survey of national experts in every country participating in the WGA using a common methodology. This allows basing the assessment on domestic stakeholders’ opinions on governance and, at the same time, to make assessment results comparable across participating countries. The WGA was first conducted in 2001. It was implemented by an international group of research organizations coordinated by the UN University (Tokyo). The first round of assessment covered 23 countries from different parts of the world including Kyrgyzstan. The second round of the assessment was conducted in 2006 using slightly different methodology in the following ten countries and territories: Argentine, Bulgaria, Indonesia, | ||||||
 Responding to Crisis, Core and Periphery“The quality of crisis management will determine the length and severity, as well as post-crisis economic prospects,” claims CASE President, Marek D±browski in the most recent Development and Transition Newsletter. In the article, Marek D±browski distinguishes between the role of the financial crisis in the ‘core’ vs. ‘periphery’ nations, by outlining the differences in impacts of the crisis and the policy responses that have resulted. The author warns about the dangers of prolonging the crisis by reverting to explicit or implicit protectionist measures, and provides projections for the realities of the post-crisis global economy . “Responding to Crisis, Core and Periphery” was published in the July 2009 in Issue 13 of the LSE and UNDP Development and Transition Newsletter, “The Regional Impact of the Global Economic Crisis” For full version of the article please visit: | ||||||
 Gazprom's New Weakness Offers Opportunity by Anders Aslund"Gazprom has gone from being a great commercial hope to an ailing giant. Gazprom's owners need to face up to the crisis and institute reforms," writes Anders Aslund in CASE Network E-brief 6/2009. "The current recession exposes Gazprom's weakness and offers an excellent opportunity to reform it. For the European Union, Gazprom's new weakness offers a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for the gas trade with Russia to improve." | ||||||
 The Russia Balance Sheetco-authored by Anders Aslund, chairman of the CASE Advisory Council and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics; and Andrew Kuchins, senior fellow as the Center for Strategic International Studies; is a clear and insightful analysis of the driving forces of contemporary Russia. The authors provide thoughtful and provocative policy recommendations for improving US-Russia relations, and emphasize the importance of mutual understanding between the states. Zbigniew Brzezinski describes the book as "rightly critical of the overly personalized style of the previous US administration's policy". The recently published book is available at http://bookstore.piie.com/book-store/4242.html. | ||||||
 Challenges to European integrationThe EU’s limited fiscal capacity has proven to be the most critical constraint in being able to respond to the crisis in a proper and well coordinated manner at the Union level argues Marek Dabrowski in his newly published paper in CASE Network Studies and Analyses series | ||||||
 Financial and Political Crisis in Ukraine, CASE Policy Research SeminarDr. Anders Aslund, keynote speaker at the CASE Policy Research Seminar, June 4, 2009, discussed the heated issue of the current “Financial and Political Crisis in Ukraine”. Aslund’s presentation contained findings from his recently published book, How Ukraine Became a Market Economy and Democracy, as well as from the latest developments in Ukrainian events. Recognizing the amount of damage Ukraine has experienced as a result of the global financial crisis, he believes that the nation has reached an “early bottom,” and is soon to embark upon a path to recovery. | ||||||
 No, the central banks didn't do it“Monetary policy was lax and eventually caused inflation, but not the financial crisis itself," states Charles Wyplosz in the 11/2009 CASE Network E-Brief. In No, the Central banks didn’t do it, Wyplosz untangles the misconception that central bank policies may be fully to blame for the onset of the financial crisis. He argues that although lax monetary policy may have contributed, particularly to rising inflation, it was distorted market perceptions and inaccurate calculations of risk which set the stage for the crisis. | ||||||
 The Global Financial Crisis: Causes, Channels of Contagion and Potential LessonsIn the face of an uncertain future with regards to the financial crisis effects but of a sure ongoing worldwide storm, Dr. Marek Dabrowski provides an interim diagnosis of the financial crisis and draw the first lessons for the future in The Global Financial Crisis: Causes, Channels of Contagion and Potential Lessons. | ||||||
| Energy Investment Potential: Ukraine Beginning in February, CASE will complete a 4 month study for the OECD digging deep to uncover the potential of energy savings, efficiency improvements, and the use of environmentally friendly technology, in the energy market in Ukraine. The study will be a part of the OECD Investment Policy Review of Ukraine carried out by the OECD Investment Division in order to enhance the country’s policy convergence with the OECD investment instruments and prepare the ground for its eventual adherence to the OECD Declaration on International Investment and Multinational Enterprises. The study (Investment in support of energy savings and efficiency and in environment friendly energy resources and technologies in Ukraine: Government policies and business practices) will be lead by CASE Fellow Wojciech Paczynski. | ||||||
 New approach to ODA policies“Europe has, in the last decades, experienced a number of success stories in moving out of poverty and onto sustainable economic growth. The secret of success has been the push towards economic integration and the adoption of economic reforms at the local, national, and regional levels conducive to economic growth. The recipient countries of development assistance have much to learn from the European experience” – argue Paolo Garonna, Deputy Executive Secretary and Abdur Chowdhury, Director of the Economic Analysis Division and Technical Cooperation Unit at UNECE (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe). In a paper entitled Effective Foreign Aid, Economic Integration and Subsidiarity: Lessons from Europe, Garonna and Chowdhury propose an alternative approach to development assistance policies – economic integration and subsidiarity, which provides the conditions necessary for ODA to produce higher rates of economic growth on a sustainable basis. The paper, now available in the CASE Studies and Analyses Series, was presented at the Winds of Change conference in March. Excerpts from Paolo Garonna and Abdur Chowdhury’s conference presentation are available for online viewing at www.video.case.com.pl [Open: clip 1, clip 2, clip 3] | ||||||
| The Global Financial Crisis: Causes and Lessons A lack of a coordinated global monetary policy at a time when finance and the economy are inextricably interrelated allowed the US and other major central banks to adopt lax monetary policies for too long. While the interest rate cuts fueled global economic growth in the short-term, and inflation was nowhere on the horizon, excess liquidity resulting from low interest rate and emerging markets’ mercantilist policy eventually created three asset bubbles in the real estate, stock, and commodity markets which led to the current financial crisis. [PRESENTATION] | ||||||
 Institutions and ConvergenceInstitutional variables are the most important factor explaining real convergence. But what are institutions? Leszek Balcerowicz, former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of Poland and a member of the CASE Supervisory Council examines the relationship between institutions and policies, institutions and organisations, and formal and informal institutions in "Studies and Analyses" no. 342. He presented his paper entitled `Institutions and convergence´ during session 2 `Global Imbalances: Sources, Sustainability, and Policy Responses´ of the Winds of Change conference in March. Click here to view this and other post-conference papers. | ||||||
 Alina Kudina and Malgorzata Jakubiak surveying 120 MNEs to find out the motives and impediments to FDI in the CISSurveying 120 foreign-owned companies active in the non-oil and resources sectors in Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan, the study finds that multi-national enterprises (MNEs) are predominantly oriented at serving local markets and operate as ‘isolated players’, while maintaining strong links to their parent companies and minimally cooperating with local CIS firms. Because supplies are secured from international sources, the possibility for spillovers arising from cooperation with foreign-owned firms in the CIS is rather low. The lack of efficiency-seeking investment poses further concern regarding the nature of FDI in the region. [No. 370: The Motives and Impediments to FDI in the CIS] | ||||||
 An Active September for ENEPO: 4 New PublicationsWith four publications making their entry on our Website, ENEPO is fast-tracking its results as the project approaches the end. 365, 366, 367 and 368 are the latest studies and analyses undertaken as part of this project financed by the EU's 6th Framework Programme and due to end in 2009 with a conference in Brussels. Wide by their scope, these recent publications examine different aspects of the European Union's relations with its Eastern neighbours, going as far as investigating Eastern policies in the field of human and minority rights from a Finno-Ugric solidarity standpoint. | ||||||
 Management Board's AddressIn 2008 CASE entered its eighteenth year of activity. As a respected international economics think tank CASE is going to consolidate its position within the European research market and explore new frontiers in development assistance activities. Meeting the first goal requires developing and strengthening our research network by engaging with more high-quality researchers from within and outside Europe to work with CASE both on a full and part-time basis. To make our research output available to a broader professional public as well as have a growing impact on the European policy debate we must upgrade our ways and means of external communications, series publications, seminars and conferences as well as other forms of public outreach. | ||||||
 EU-Russia FTA Feasibility Study“Both Russia and the EU would benefit from a bilateral free trade agreement in the future, particularly if it is deep one,” according to CASE experts who worked on the recent study, Economic Feasibility and General Economic Impact of a Free Trade Agreement between the European Union and the Russian Federation. The experts recommend an FTA which, apart from removing import tariffs, would involve a substantial reduction of non-tariff barriers, approximation of the regulatory regime for many goods and service markets and improvements in customs procedures and regulations. The study was commissioned by the European Commission, Directorate-General for Trade. Members of the CASE team, coordinated by Maryla Maliszewska, presented the results of the study to EC in July. Click here for more information about the project. | ||||||
 Financial Crisis: Is There a Wandering Asset-Price Bubble?Dr. Orlowski argues in this Network Study and Analysis that the severity of the crisis is strongly influenced by changeable allocations of global savings, which lead to over-pricing of varied types of assets. This process is termed a "wandering asset-price bubble". [No. 372: Stages of the Ongoing Global Financial Crisis: Is There a Wandering Asset-Price Bubble?] | ||||||
| Energy Sector in the CIS: Policy Challenges and the Importance for the EU On 22 September 2008, CASE hosted a policy research seminar on the Energy Sector in the CIS featuring Mr. Wojciech Paczyñski, Team Leader of the final report on The Economic Aspects of the Energy Sector in CIS Countries, commissioned by the EC’s Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs. Presentation online | ||||||
 Economic and Social Consequences of Industrial Restructuring in Russia and Ukraine"The demographic situation and the labour supply in Russia and Ukraine were strongly affected by the transition processes. The most important problem is the decreasing size of the population due to low birth rates and short life expectancy, especially among men" is one of the conclusions outlined by experts in the three latest working papers issued under ESCIRRU, a project funded under the EU's 6th Framework Programme. | ||||||
| The Supervisory Council approved Three New Appointments In a meeting held on 22 October, CASE’s Supervisory Council approved three new appointments, in addition to accepting Malgorzata Jakubiak’s resignation from her current position as Vice-President. Malgorzata will continue her successful research career within the European Commission’s DG Trade Chief Economist Office beginning on 1 November. At the Management Board level, Sebastien Leclef, currently a Senior Research Programme Officer within CASE’s Project Team, will take on the role of Vice-President once Malgorzata Jakubiak’s term comes to an end on 31 October. Former V-P James Cabot will be appointed as a new member of the Supervisory Council, from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013. While serving as V-P, James resiliently worked on meliorating CASE’s development assistance and communications. Dr. Susan Schadler will join CASE’s Advisory Council until the expiration of its current term on 30 June 2010. A former IMF staff member, namely as a Deputy Director of the European Department (1999-2007), she is also the author of several publications on emerging market economies. | ||||||
 CASE wins Lot 7 and Lot 11 Framework ContractsThe results of two new EuropeAid Framework Contracts bring new project opportunities for CASE. The outcome of the competition renewed CASE presence and eligibility to compete for Lot 11, “Macro Economy, Statistics and Public Finance Management” opportunities and opens the doors to an array of new assignments through the Lot 7 framework contract on “Governance and Home Affairs”. | ||||||
 Free Trade Agreement between the EU and the Russian Federation: Economic, Social and Environmental Implications. FINAL REPORTAuthors of the Final Report of the study concluded that an EU-Russia FTA would be beneficial to the Russian Federation and the EU27. As a result of a FTA, the majority of sectors in Russia are expected to expand, while only a few sectors in the EU27 are expected to register negligible decreases in output. Furthermore, the overall increase in economic activity and wages, coupled with likely domestic policies aiming at easing the impact of transitional unemployment, are expected to allow for the overall reduction in poverty rates. The study evaluated the economic, social and environmental impact and feasibility of a free trade agreement (FTA) between the EU and the Russian Federation. The final report was written by a team of researchers led by Maryla Maliszewska. | ||||||
 Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Firm Performance in Emerging Markets. In CASE Network Studies and Analyses Publication No. 391, Camilla Jensen contributes to the literature on the impact of foreign direct investment on firm performance in emerging markets. The study distinguishes between the direct (within firm) and indirect (across firm within industry) effects emanating from the presence of a foreign ownership class; it evaluates foreign subsidiary performance, market efficiency effects, labor productivity and employment growth, as well as estimates markup levels using a rich panel of manufacturing firm case studies. | ||||||
 CASE's Veaceslav Negruta nominated Minister of Finance of MoldovaVeaceslav Negruta, CASE and CASE Moldova associate, has become one of the members of the new government of the Republic of Moldova, filling the key position as the Minister of Finance. Negruta is a well known, young generation, Moldovan macroeconomist, and author of many macroeconomic analyses and publications. In 2003 Negruta contributed to the founding of CASE Moldova and became its Deputy Executive Director (until 2005). He has also participated in a number of CASE research and technical assistance projects related to Moldova and CIS region. | ||||||
| The EU and CIS: deeper integration should be welcomed In the lattest CASE Network Report CASE experts estimate the impact of the removal of NTBs in trade between the EU and its selected CIS partners: Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan (CIS5). The report includes a discussion of methodologies of measurement of non-tariff barriers and the impact of their removal, including a review of previous studies focusing on CEE and CIS regions. Further, the authors employ a computable general equilibrium model encompassing the following three pillars of trade facilitation: legislative and regulatory approximation, reform of customs rules and procedures and liberalization of the access of foreign providers of services. The study concludes that a reduction of NTBs and improved access to the EU market would bring significant benefits to the CIS5 countries in terms of welfare gains, GDP growth, increases in real wages and expansion of international trade. The possible welfare implications of deep integration with the EU range from 5.8% of GDP in Ukraine to sizeable expected gains in Armenia (3.1%), Russia (2.8%), Azerbaijan (1.8%) and Georgia (1.7%). | ||||||
 Yegor Gaidar passed awayYegor Gaidar, father of economic reforms and market transformation in Russia and world renowned economist died today on December 16, 2009 at the age of 53. He was the Deputy Prime Minister in charge of economic policy and Minister of Economy and Finance (1991-1992), acting Prime Minister of the Russian Federation (1992), advisor to the President of RF (1993), first Deputy Prime Minister and acting Minister of Economy (1993-1994). He was twice a member of State Duma (the lower house of parliament): from 1993 to 1995 and from 1999 to 2003. He was one of the founders and then Director of the Institute for the Economy in Transition (IET) in Moscow, the prestigious research institution belonging to the CASE network. He was a member of the CASE Advisory Council from its first formation, participating in several CASE conferences, seminars and author of CASE publications. He was good friend of CASE and many of us personally. President of CASE Marek Dabrowski | ||||||
 Business Environment ConstraintsThe effect of business environment on a firm’s performance and analysts’ ability to identify this effect are more limited than has been assumed to date. Jan Svejnar, Director of the International Policy Center at the University of Michigan and Simon Commander, Senior Adviser at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and Director of the Centre for New and Emerging Markets at London Business School analyzed a large stratified random sample of firms to identify measures of performance and perceptions of business environment constraints. Their analysis brings into question the conventional wisdom explaining the relationship between business constraints and performance. Click here to read the abstract and full report: Do Institutions, Ownership, Exporting and Competition Explain Firm Performance? | ||||||
 Global Imbalances and the Financial CrisisVideo Clips from The Return of History: From Consensus to Crisis CASE International Conference are now available on the website. Keynote speaker, David Robison’s speech can now be viewed at http://www.caseconference.eu/video.html. In his presentation, David Robinson, Deputy Director of Western Hemisphere Department of International Monetary Fund, makes an introspection to global imbalances and their underpinning factors. He elaborates on the links between global imbalances and the recent financial crisis and discusses deriving policy challenges. Robinson argues that imbalances are still a concern that needs to be addressed both by individual state policy response and multilateral policy coordination with the IMF serving the facilitator role. | ||||||
 Diversity and Commonality in European Social Policies: The Forging of a European Social Modeledited by Stanislawa Golinowska, Peter Hengstenberg and Maciej Zukowski deals with the complex issue of forming a European Social Model. One important insight is that having member states working together on common social policy challenges is a more proactive approach given the supranational character of some social issues and the added value a European perspective can bring to national policies. | ||||||
| CASE ranks 3rd in the Top 25 Leading Think Tanks in Eastern Europe The ranking is according to the 2008 Global Go-To Think Tanks Index which gathers the best think tanks around the world. Topping the list of Eastern European think tanks is the Carnegie Moscow Center and the Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Russia. | ||||||
 Member of CASE Advisory Council nominated Chief Economist of IMFSimon Johnson, a distinguished professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and member of the CASE Advisory Council since 2004, was nominated as the new chief economist of the International Monetary Fund by Rodrigo Rato, the Fund's managing director. Prof. Johnson will join the IMF in his new role as leader of the research department in late March. | ||||||
 Shadow Employment in PolandAt the end of December, a team of CASE social policy experts concluded a project which studied the phenomenon of unregistered workers in Poland. The team, led by Mateusz Walewski (pictured left), estimates that 9.3% of all jobs in Poland are held by unregistered workers, with the majority in rural areas. Lack of alternative job opportunities for unskilled workers was found to be the driving force behind shadow employment. At the same time, the studies indicate strong preferences and a positive attitude towards shadow employment among the general population. In order to reduce the size of shadow employment in the long term, the team recommends decreasing non-wage labour costs, increasing the severity and likelihood of punishment and strengthening the levels trust in public institutions and the rule of law. The project was funded by the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, and its detailed results will be presented at the Ministry’s conference in the spring. See the project page at: Poland’s shadow employment: its size, characteristics and social consequences. | ||||||
 Ma³gorzata Jakubiak named Vice President of CASE Management BoardOn 1 December, Ma³gorzata Jakubiak succeeded Artur Radziwi³³ as Vice President for Research Programs at CASE. Ma³gorzata is an expert on international trade, macroeconomics, monetary policy and innovation and has been with CASE since 1997. She has published various texts on trade flows, exchange rates, savings and investments, and European Neighbourhood Policy. For her full profile click here. Artur Radziwi³³ will continue work with CASE as a senior research fellow and experienced policy expert. The CASE Supervisory Council congratulates Malgorzata and wishes her success in her new position. The Council also thanks Artur for doing an excellent job during the last three and half years, as his work has greatly contributed to CASE’s international success. | ||||||
 Technical Assistance to CIS Countries: Performance At StakeWhile technical assistance has played a positive and important role in the transformation of the CIS societies since the last two decades, practically all stakeholders currently share the opinion that many problems have accumulated in the area of technical cooperation with CIS countries. The analysis suggests that a good understanding, recognition and coordination of the interests of all TC stakeholders and a reduction in the information gap between the various participants in the technical cooperation process are necessary for improving the effectiveness of technical cooperation. [No. 369: Technical Assistance to CIS Countries] | ||||||
| Financial Crisis: Hire economic historians, not mathematicians and physicists! From left to right: Charles Goodhart, Mariusz Grendowicz, Ewa Balcerowicz "Hire fewer mathematicians and physicists and a few more historians" remarks Professor Charles Goodhart during the 100th BRE-CASE Seminar held on 22 January 2009 at BRE BANK SA premises. [click to enlarge picture] | ||||||
 The path to the next crisisRegardless of whether fiscal stimulus has been the correct policy choice or not, “the price of countercyclical fiscal policies in 2008 and 2009 has been extremely high,” says CASE President, Marek Dabrowski in CASE Network E-brief 12/2009, From fiscal stimulus to fiscal crisis. Assessing the international response to the global financial crisis, Marek Dabrowski warns that the counter-cyclical fiscal policies enacted, have pushed many developed economies in the direction of a debt trap. The negative consequences of this trend may lead to “another macroeconomic and/or financial crisis.” | ||||||
 9th International Academic Conference in MoscowMr Marek D±browski, Chairman of CASE Supervisory Council, participated in the 9th International Academic Conference on "Economic Modernization and Globalization" in Moscow on April 1-3, 2008 organized by the Higher School of Economics. He made presentation on "Key macroeconomic issues related to the energy sector in the CIS" (Session A-05) and chaired one of the sessions. The presentation is a result of the CIS Energy project conducted by CASE for the DG ECFIN. | ||||||
 The Baltics - hard landing?On September 3th at 16.00 CASE hosted a seminar on the subject of "Convergence in the Baltics. From Boom to Bust". The guest lecturer was Dr Christoph B. Rosenberg, the head of the International Monetary Fund’s regional office for Central Europe and the Baltics. | ||||||
 Jeffrey Sachs, Marek Dabrowski debate effectiveness of aidDr. Jeffrey Sachs, director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University, and a member of the CASE Advisory Council, presented his vision for effective development aid to those countries excluded from the globalization process at a debate hosted by CASE and Gazeta Wyborcza on October 1st. Marek Dabrowski, Chairman of the Supervisory Council, argued that aid must go hand in hand with sensible economic policies. Video excerpts of the event are now available at http://www.video.case.com.pl/ Dr. Sachs received a PhD honoris causa at the opening ceremony of the academic year at the Economic University in Krakow on October 2nd. Professor Sachs is one of the world's most well-known economists. He has worked on issues of poverty reduction, debt cancellation and sustainable development for more than 20 years. He helped develop "shock therapy" as a solution to the economic crises in Poland, Russia and Bolivia. In 2004-2005 Dr. Sachs was named one of the world's 100 most influential leaders by Time magazine. | ||||||
| Knowledge-based enterprises in Central and Eastern Europe: Contributing to the diffusion of innovation rather than innovating KEINS (Knowledge-based Entrepreneurship: Innovation, Networks and Systems), a recently completed project funded under the EU Sixth Framework Program, was devoted to the analysis of the factors behind the evolution and growth of knowledge-intensive firms. Studying over 300 knowledge-based enterprises (KBEs) in six transition countries, one of the key insights of the research is that KBEs in Central and East European countries tend to be knowledge-customizing firms rather than knowledge-creating. Click on more to read a summary of the project’s findings. | ||||||
| In defense of entrepreneurial capitalism Many famous economists (like Mises, Hayek, Schumpeter, Nozick and other thinkers) have noted that under democratic capitalism there are always influential intellectualists who condemn capitalism and call for the state to restrain the markets. Such an activity bears no risk and may be very rewarding – argues Leszek Balcerowicz, the Member of CASE Supervisory Council in the article titled "This has not been a pure failure of markets" published in Financial Times of May 14, 2009 – see http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/db850b90-401f-11de-9ced-00144feabdc0.html?nclick&nclick_check=1. | ||||||
 "Economics, not Politics in Central Europe's Biggest Problem"writes Anders Aslund in an op-ed article for the Financial Times (Nov. 8th). Aslund is a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Chairman of the CASE Advisory Council. Click below to read the article which compares the economic performance of Central European countries with the countries of Western Europe, the Baltics and the former Soviet Union. | ||||||
 CASE co-hosting the energy workshopOne day workshop on "The Economic Aspects of the Energy Sector in CIS Countries" presented the key findings from the project carried by CASE for European Commission’s DG ECFIN. The workshop took place at the premises of the EC Delegation in Moscow. The topics covered included key macroeconomic issues related to energy sector functioning in the CIS, CIS role for the EU energy supply, and strategies and policy options for the energy sector development in the CIS region. The report has just been published in the European Economy. Economic Paper Series of the DG ECFIN. | ||||||
 New Book: Determinants of Pro-Poor Growth: Analytical Issues and Findings from Country CasesPro-poor growth is considered central for achieving sustainable poverty reduction and the MDGs. This book analyzes determinants of pro-poor growth in eight countries, employing advanced research methods. The chapter entitled, "Romania in Transition: Growth, Jobs and Poverty" was co-authored by CASE experts W.Paczynski, A.Radziwill, A.Sowa, I.Topinska and M.Walewski. | ||||||
| Supporting UNICEF to Achieve Improvements in Outcomes for Children and Families in the Western Balkans and the Commonwealth of Independent States Regions CASE has been selected by UNICEF to conduct a study on Public Finance Management (PFM) reforms in 19 countries belonging to the Western Balkans and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The study is designed to help UNICEF upgrade its institutional capacity in conducting more effective and well targeted interventions aimed at preserving and extending the interests of children and their families through a better rooted involvement at times when real prioritization takes place, i.e., during budgets and Medium Term Expenditure Frameworks discussions with national authorities. Click on more for additional details about this project. | ||||||
 CASE Launches New "E-briefs" Publication SeriesThe series provides a way for CASE scholars publicize to the results of their latest research and provide insight into current policy debates in a format that is accessible to an educated, non-specialist readership. E-briefs are directed towards policy-makers, journalists, business leaders and the general public. In the latest in this series, Dr. Przemys³aw Wozniak considers the effects of the 2004 European Union enlargement on price levels in the EU and highlights the most important policy implications. Click here to view: When Can We Expect Price Convergence in the Enlarged EU? | ||||||
 Conference Highlight: How Can the EU Emulate the Positive Features of the East Asian Model?“Three advantages of the East Asian model stand out: small social transfers, low taxation and free labor markets. The superiority of such policies is now widely accepted, and the question is how they can be emulated by Europe.” This was the question posed by Anders Åslund of the Peterson Institute of International Economics during the Winds of Change conference. See the latest publication in the 'CASE Studies and Analyses' series to read his recommendations for how Europe can follow the East Asian model of sustainable high economic growth. | ||||||
 Polish Economic Outlook 1/2007: Special Topic – Poland, the Euro and the Maastricht criteriaThe latest edition of PEO rates 2006 as a year in which economic growth exceeded expectations, reaching the highest yearly rate since 1997. The outlook for the Polish economy looks positive in both the short and medium terms. Forecasts show GDP growth will remain high (above 6%) in 2007, largely due to strong domestic demand, though it is expected to slow by 2008. | ||||||
 Ukraine Report Presented to European ParliamentThe CASE report “Prospects for EU-Ukraine relations” has garnered much interest among EU parliamentarians and officials involved in policy decisions on Europe’s ‘Eastern neighborhood.’ The presentation comes at a very appropriate time, as Ukraine and the EC are just beginning discussions on the trade agreement. Malgorzata Jakubiak, one of the authors of the report, recently presented its main findings at a mini-hearing of the Committee on International Trade of the European Parliament in Brussels. The report was previously presented in Strasbourg at a session of the Baltic Intergroup of the European Parliament by Jakubiak and Vitaliy Vavryshuck of CASE Ukraine. | ||||||
 The New EU Frontier: Perspectives on Enhanced Economic IntegrationThis newest CASE Report aims to identify the best forms of enhanced economic integration between the EU and Ukraine, Russia, Egypt, Morocco and Algeria, from the EU perspective. The authors review existing forms of integration and evaluate the various institutional options for further integration over the next five to ten years. The effects of increased integration are evaluated in terms of trade in goods and services and migration. The authors conclude by recommending areas to prioritize in future cooperation agreements and pointing out where business opportunities will open up for EU partners. | ||||||
 New CASE report on Trade Integration in South East EuropeThe development of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s foreign trade is being hindered by domestic problems related to the economic and institutional framework, investment climate and conditions for entrepreneurship. Regional trade integration offers several benefits, but it takes time for its effects to translate into an improved foreign trade record. These are the conclusions of the new CASE report: | ||||||
 Conference Highlight: The Economic Development of Africa“In the 1960s, the studies of development scholars like Gunnar Myrdal were predicting that Asia, not Africa, would be the problem. Africa had a lot of resources…The problem was going to be Asia with huge populations, very dense economies and very few development prospects. How was that prediction so wrong?” asked Alan Gelb, the World Bank's Director of Development Policy during the CASE and CASE Ukraine Winds of Change conference in March. Gelb outlined the key economic challenges facing sub-Saharan Africa and outlined a scenario for improving the competitiveness of the region, while also touching on some of the political economy issues of the region's continuing evolution. Excerpts from Alan Gelb’s speech will be soon available for online viewing on the Winds of Change webpage. To see pictures from this and other sessions, please see the Conference Photo Gallery. | ||||||
 Winds of Change Conference is a SuccessCASE and CASE Ukraine successfully co-hosted the International WINDS of CHANGE Conference on March 23rd and 24th in Kyiv, Ukraine. Two hundred outstanding researchers, policymakers and representatives of international organizations and financial institutions representing over 30 countries attended the conference in the Ukrainian capital. Throughout the two-day event, panelists and participants maintained a lively and stimulating discussion on the causes and consequences of the Eastward shift in economic power and considered the potential policy options available. | ||||||
| CASE participates in International workshop on the Knowledge Economy Prof. Anna Wziatek-Kubiak will present her report "The situation of a transforming country - the example of Poland" at a conference at the University of Dortmund on March 15 - 16. The conference is entitled "Low-Technology: Innovativeness, Development and Perspectives in the Knowledge Economy". | ||||||
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